I recently bought an Android phone and was thinking of what I could use it for. With Google Voice and Skype, I could make “calls” and send text messages wherever I have an internet connection. If Google eventually enables making voice calls over wifi (like in Google Chat, and I predict they will some time this year), I think the big phone companies will start hurting, because people will want data-only plans so that they can call with Google.

This “cable cutting” has already happened with landlines (my Mom has a dedicated phone device that does VoIP) and cable tv. So it makes sense that wireless phone providers will soon feel the effects as well. I’d really love to set up the HTC Hero that I ordered as a dedicated “landline” phone that I use with my internet connection at home.

Of course, most people will still probably continue to use the standard bundled minutes + texts (+ data) phone plans, but I feel early adopters are just itching to pay one monthly data bill for all of their infrastructure needs. It’ll only be a matter of time before the mainstream begins to head in that direction. I think that the phone as we know it (how ridiculous is it to pay a phone plan based on the number of minutes in the plan?) will begin to die in 2011, with more emphasis on bandwidth as the infrastructure requirement.

Edit: Cool, looks like my blog got posted to from some hack blog called “PCWorld.” I will note that while it is easy to make dumb predictions about the future, it is even easier to go back and look at the incorrect ones. If everyone made accurate predictions about the iPhone, it would’ve existed before Apple invented it. Please keep the comments section nice, or I might pull an Engadget. My mom reads this, you know!

Once upon a time, I made a post about how the iPhone was going to fail. I did it mostly for lulz and also to try and get on the front page of Digg. Seriously, that post was diggbait! That was back when people still went to Digg and people still tried to get on the main page of Digg. The interesting thing is that post got a lot more commentary than other technology posts I made before and since then.

Today, I feel the urge to write a post about how the iPad thing will fail. This time, I actually mean it.

In essence, the iPad is just a giant iPhone with no camera, no microphone and no phone. What it gains in screen size it loses in a lot of core functionality. It doesn’t even really bother me so much that they took out important features. It’s what they left in.

The iPad works on the iPhone OS. This could be a good idea, except that they really didn’t consider that making a device four times bigger might introduce some design considerations. The iPad is quite literally a giant iPhone. Most iPhone games, etc (at least, those not requiring a mic or camera) are supposed to work on it. But when you think about it, what games using the accelerometer will actually work out of the box when you’re dealing with something 1.5 pounds heavy and clunkier than a handheld device? Shaking a tablet is different from shaking a small phone.

I’m not sure if the designers were just lazy or if they didn’t care at all about the new scale. The mail app looks like it was hacked into the iPad. It should look like it was designed for the thing, but for some reason we still have the really thin column and a bunch of whitespace. WTF?

I suppose that Apple needed to release the thing and do it with an unpolished product. Some apps look well designed, like the iBooks one (clever naming convention there, Apple), but most look like they were just stretched to fit the larger resolution. A lot of companies could get away with this, but I think people expect more from Apple. If Apple wants to control the entire end user experience, they should take that responsibility with a burden.

My predictions:

• Apple will get better at designing apps for the iPad. The best ones will come from them.
• Most developer apps will look like crap on the iPad. A few will “get it.” Those ones will be successful.
• Most developers will probably find developing (quality) apps too difficult on the damn thing, give up.
• People will realize that they don’t want a computing device that only allows Apple-approved software on it. They’ll stick with the Macbook, which can do much more than an iPad and runs any third-party software, including Flash and Firefox.

So there was this Microsoft ad that came out during an NCAA game. It featured a cute girl, Lauren, trying to decide which computer to buy. The voice of the ad (some omniscient being?) told her if she could find the kind she wanted under $1000 he’d buy it for her. The computer she wanted at the Apple Store was too expensive. She chose a Windows PC instead for $700.

A lot of people have claimed the ad is a huge success. It hits Apple in its weak point: price. That may be true, but there’s also this thing called “value.” Apple computers have always been about quality. Software quality, build quality, design. While it’s true that the upfront costs of a Mac are higher than a PC, you get what you pay for. There are tradeoffs associated with buying an HP versus a Macbook. The specs are not the computer.

I would argue that the amortized price of a Mac is probably about the same as a PC (or better). They’re built to last (even if Apple forces you to buy a new one every year or face inferiority). I’ve gone through too many Dell, HP and Toshiba laptops whose hinges explode. You can’t use a laptop after the hinge explodes. I haven’t had a Macbook explode yet (though the plastic did start coming off; it won’t happen on my aluminum Macbook Pro). Dell is trying to get into the premium PC market, which is great. But that sorta negates the price argument. In this economy it’s smart to play the price card, and people pay more attention to upfront costs than maintenance costs.

Also, it’s not the best idea to try and sell your product by having a “real” person shop for PCs when the person turns out to be a professional (SAG) actress. It makes it seem more staged; this definitely is not a Pepsi Challenge. But hey, whatever. I think MS got their point across. Plus I forgive Lauren because she’s way cute! I just hope her back can handle lugging around a 17″ computer.

Personally, I would advertise netbooks since they’re super cheap and Apple doesn’t have an equivalent, yet.

So after a few false starts, I have an iPhone 3G that works.

The journey was a long one; at the end I grew weary and lost faith. But finally, I have a neat iPhone 3G that does cool stuff.

It started this morning at around 5:30. I woke up (though I only got like, 3 hours of sleep since I had taken a nap earlier and messed up my sleep cycle) and took a quick shower. No breakfast. Just took a vitamin water (these things are kinda good!) and a coffee granola bar for energy.

Gaurav (from Troubadour Mobile) picked Adam (also from Troubadour Mobile) and I up. We drove to the mall and saw a bunch of peeps. We also saw some officemates from CampusRoost (yes, that’s a slick mention!). They told us that the AT&T store on Liberty had like, zero people and we should go there.

When we actually got to the AT&T store, it was around 6:30ish. There were actually about 30 people in line. Apparently everyone showed up around 6:15 or so. There was a really cool line wrangler named Steve that kept everyone reasonably informed. We found out there were like, 40 phones. So we should be able to get one. Adam and Brent didn’t want to settle for white ones. Or 8GB ones. But I think eventually Adam got a black 8GB and I dunno what Brent did.

At 8am, the line started moving, and it was moving well. But then disaster struck! It seems either Apple or AT&T didn’t have the resources to take a billion people in the US all wanting iPhones at the same time (and having to activate them in the store). The activations were apparently taking around 45-50 minutes each when they should’ve taken 15 or so.

Eventually, the AT&T people let us just do most of the steps in store and then activate at home. By the time we were done, it was about 11am. I went home and tried to activate the thing for about 15 minutes. iTunes was just being bad. So I went to sleep. I woke up at around 2pm and tried to activate again. This time it worked after about 30 minutes of trying.

I’ve been loading up apps and trying them out. It’s pretty cool. My favorite so far is the PhoneSaber.

So Apple announced the Macbook Air today. I was hoping for something like a major upgrade to the Macbook Pro, but this is kinda cool, too.

It’s thin, which is really nice. I used to have a Dell 300m that was about 3 pounds. I liked it a lot for the portability; unfortunately the build quality wasn’t great and the screen developed some issues.

But basically, that’s all the Macbook Air is: a thinner Macbook with less features that costs more. Unless you’re a weakling, the benefit of having a slightly lighter computer isn’t really worth all that you’re losing. Sure, there’s stuff like the multi-touch and um… isn’t that about it?

I was totally ready to buy whatever new awesomeness Apple had ready for the Macbook Pro, but I guess I’ll forgo buying one until they do get an upgrade. At this point, I can buy a refurbished Macbook Pro for about the same price (or less) as a new Macbook Air. But I don’t really need a Macbook Pro since my normal Macbook is still chugging along nicely…

So I drove on over to the Apple Store today (it was on the way back from some other place I was driving to) and I tried out the iPhone. It’s neat! I tried out all the applications and they work fairly well. The typing is alright, but when you type words that are uncommon in the dictionary, for instance, “truong,” the keyboard kinda compensates in the wrong direction.

Besides that, the applications are pretty fun to use, but they seem a bit more jerky than the commercials would have you believe. For instance, I was using the google maps app and it took forever to download the map tiles! The zooming in and out using the multi touch was way cool, but it also seemed to lag behind a bit as well. I know it’ll take lag to move stuff around, but it was… how should I put it? Slower than I expected.

The iPhone certainly is a cool gadget. I just don’t know why it needs to be a phone. Apple’s created a pretty sweet PDA that includes a phone, which requires a subscription fee. If they had just called it the iPDA, maybe I’d be more willing to get one. That, and if they lowered the price, made it snappier, made the battery life longer, etc. I actually had one die while I was using it in the store. The battery ran out and I had to switch to another one.

Oh well, maybe in the next generation/iteration I’ll be able to afford one. And convince myself that I should pay the price for it.

The focus of today’s Macworld 2007 was definitely the iPhone. While general consensus is that the iPhone is the next killer app, I still have my doubts. Here are 4 reasons why the Apple iPhone will fail:

1. Public Acceptance:
The average person doesn’t even use the WAP browser on their phone, let alone any full blown OSX apps! What people want in a mobile phone is a phone; they don’t need all of these extras. Extra software just makes it more difficult to perform the main function of the phone: to make phone calls.

2. Price:
The price of the iPhone was announced at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB with a 2 year contract. Right now, you can get a T-Mobile MDA smartphone for $0 after rebate. The mass market is not willing to pay this much for a phone.

3. Copyright and Regulations:
There already is an iPhone out. It’s the Linksys Wireless-G Skype iPhone. I hope Apple has a lot of money or lawyers to acquire the rights to the name.

Pair this with the fact that the iPhone doesn’t have FCC approval and we might never see the iPhone get to market. How did Steve make all of those phone calls anyway?

4. Battery Life:
The iPhone runs OSX! This is great for a laptop or a desktop computer, but does a phone really need OSX? The battery life was announced as 5 hours of talk time, browsing, or video. Basically, 5 hours of active use. What happens after that? Your phone is dead and no one can call you.

People are not going to use the iPhone’s features for fear of losing their connectivity when the battery runs out.

First off, I should note that this is a payed review via reviewme.com.

Wirefly is an online store that sells cell phones and service. I think they sell service for just about every carrier, including T-Mobile, Sprint, and Alltel. Taking a quick look at Amazon.com’s mobile phone store, it looks like Alltel is not included. So I guess in that respect, Wirefly wins.

I’m actually thinking about getting a new phone, so I just “pretended” to buy a new phone at both stores. The Motorola Razr V3t immediately comes to mind as something I’d like to buy. At Wirefly, the phone is $49.99 with a $50 rebate. At Amazon.com, the phone is $24.99 with a $50 rebate and a $25 rebate. The prices after rebate are $.01 and -$50.01 for Wirefly and Amazon.com, respectively. These are both the price paid when bought with a plan.

I think Amazon.com is pretty much the standard when it comes to buying phone service online. They have a pretty good reputation and very good prices. I can’t say anything about Wirefly’s service, but it seems okay from the website. I guess the only thing I could say is that if you’re looking for Alltel service, you won’t find it at Amazon.com. Wirefly looks like a decent retailer; it just isn’t as good as Amazon.

I’d still go with Amazon in the end due to the prices and trust I have in that online retailer.

I got a new camera: the Casio Exilim EX-Z70. It was only $150 at Best Buy, which was a pretty good bargain. Since I was over at UNM yesterday, I decided to take a few test shots. They’re mostly okay, but somewhat grainy when seen at full resolution. This should probably be a 6 megapixel camera, not a 7.2…

Anyway, the video quality is fairly good. Better than my old Canon S50, at least.

Youtube video quality kinda sucks, so here it is in lower compression:

When I first saw pictures of the Humping Dog USB thing, I thought it was an ill-designed USB flash drive. Obviously people were laughing at it because it was dog shaped, and if you put it onto a laptop, it looked like the dog was humping it. I was wrong.

The device is specifically designed to look like a dog humping a laptop. Moreover, it is mechanical. Yes, the dog physically humps the laptop when you “plug it in.” The website (in Japanese) states, “Once you insert it, it doesn’t stop!”

I’m not even sure that the USB device has any memory, as the website says nothing about capacity. I think it’s just more of a desk toy than anything. It costs 998 yen, which is less than $10.

I don’t know if the best part of the video is the mosaic censoring of the dog, or “Believe” by Cher playing in the background…